have yet to discover any signs of an extraterrestrial civilization — a
prospect that could quite literally change overnight. Should that
happen, our sense of ourselves and our place in the cosmos would forever
be shaken. It could even change the course of human history. Or would
Last week, SETI's Seth Shostak made the claim that we'll detect an alien civilization by 2040.
Personally, I don't believe this will happen (for reasons I can
elucidate in a future post — but the Fermi Paradox is definitely a
factor, as is the problem of receiving coherent radio signals across
stellar distances). But it got me wondering: What, if anything, would
change in the trajectory of a civilization's development if it had definitive proof that intelligent extraterrestrials (ETIs) were real?
Finding a World Much Like Our Own
As I thought about this, I assumed a scenario with three basic elements.
humanity would make this historic discovery within the next several
years or so. Second, that we wouldn't actually make contact with the
other civilization (just the receipt, say, of a radio transmission —
something like a Lucy Signal
that would cue us to their existence). And third, that the ETI in
question would be at roughly the same level of technological development
as our own (so they're not too much more advanced than we are; that
said, if the signal came from an extreme distance, like hundreds or
thousands of light-years away, these aliens would probably have advanced
appreciably by now. Or they could be gone altogether, the victims of a
tossed this question over to my friend and colleague Milan Cirkovic.
He's a Senior Research Associate at the Astronomical Observatory of
Belgrade and a leading expert on SETI.
that's a very practical question, isn't it?" he responded. "Because
people have been expecting something like this since 1960 when SETI was
first launched — they haven't really been expecting to find billion-year
old supercivilizations or just some stupid bacteria."
the underlying philosophy of SETI over the course of its 50-year
history has been that we'll likely detect a civilization roughly equal
to our own — for better or worse. And no doubt, in retrospect it started
to look "for worse" when the hopes of an early success were dashed.
Frank Drake and his colleagues thought they would find signs of ETIs
fairly quickly, but that turned out not to be the case (though Drake's
echo can still be heard in the unwarranted contact optimism of Seth
people argued that a simple signal wouldn't mean much for humanity,"
added Cirkovic, "but I think Carl Sagan, as usual, had a good response
Sagan said that the very understanding that we are not unique in the
universe would have enormous implications for all those fields in which
anthropocentrism reigns supreme.
"Which means, I guess, half of all the sciences and about 99% of the other, non-scientific discourse," said Cirkovic.
also believed that the detection of a signal would reignite enthusiasm
for space in general, both in terms of research and eventually the
colonization of space.
latter point was quite prescient, actually, because at the time he said
this there wasn't much enthusiasm about it and it was much less visible
and obvious than it is today," he added.
doubt — this would likely generate tremendous excitement and enthusiasm
for space exploration. In addition to expanding ourselves into space,
there would be added impetus to reach out and meet them.
In response to my query about the detection of ETIs affecting the developmental trajectory
of civilizations, Cirkovic replied that both of Sagan's points can be
generalized to any civilization at their early stages of development.
believes that overcoming speciesist biases, along with a constant
interest and interaction with the cosmic environment, must be desirable
for any (even remotely) rational actors anywhere. But Cirkovic says
there may be exceptions — like species who emerge from radically
different environments, say, the atmospheres of Jovian planets. Such
species would likely have a lack of interest in surrounding space, which
would be invisible to them practically 99% of the time.
So if Sagan
is correct, detecting an alien civilization at this point in our
history would likely be a good thing. In addition to fostering science
and technological development, it would motivate us to explore and
colonize space. And who knows, it could even instigate significant
cultural and political changes (including the advent of political
parties both in support of and in opposition to all this). It could even
lead to new religions, or eliminate them altogether.
possibility is that nothing would change. Life on Earth would go on as
per usual as people work to pay their bills and keep a roof above their
heads. There could be a kind of detachment to the whole thing, leading
to a certain ambivalence.
Yikes. Stupid Fermi Paradox — always getting in the way of our future plans.